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Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dealers

nitesite

Average Guy
Moderator
"Philanthropist"
I stopped in my LGS today to inquire about some things, and the conversation got around to AR15 rifle sales. The owner, whom I have known for fifteen years and from whom I have purchased 80% of my guns from told me something I wasn't prepared for.

AR-15 rifle orders (we were talking about Rock River Arms generally) placed around Christmas were on a seven-month delivery schedule.

This week, a customer put a deposit down on two Rock Rivers and when the LGS ordered them they were told it was no longer seventh months of waiting. It wasn't even nine months anymore.

It was generally expected to be at 12-months and that was not even a loose commitment on how long before they really show up.

The good news is that they are locking in the price to the gun dealer when the order is placed, which is below published current MSRP.

I'm not buying (or ordering) any myself. I'm actually selling (successfully) most of my guns that I expect will be on the banned list. The couple still remaining, when they are gone, will have me down to some single shots and a revolver or two, and the .22s .... so these delays really won't be affecting me personally in the least.
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

I also noticed that Olympic Arms had a big notification on their site to expect at least an 8 month delay due to recent orders when I logged on to get their phone number to order a couple of 9mm A1 flash hiders for a couple of my carbines.

They also stated that any major component/part used to build a complete rifle, weren't accepting orders so the company can concentrate on building factory rifles instead.

So, they are not currently selling uppers, lowers, bolts, barrels, etc. at all until further notice.

So, this phenomena is not just affecting RRA.

Provided that no ban is signed into law, this will really effect the industry as a whole, and will seperate a lot of the small fries that don't actually manufacture their parts from the big boys in a hurry.

The small boutique licensed manufacturers that don't actually make anything are going to have a lot of trouble getting parts with their names on them.

And that's not even taking into consideration there are only a handful of actual forgers providing the raw forgings to all of these companies, is not going to help matters any either.

My best guess, expect a lot of imported made in chinese and taiwanese, phillipino and vietnamese parts to be hitting the market as time progresses from the lack of availability of the few actual manufacturers that normally sell to the small companies.

I fully expect some companies like SAA, PSA, Spikes, and many others to have a very hard year fulfilling their orders.

Go ahead and mark the tape. There is my prediction.
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

When I ordered my OA rifle, they said two weeks, I think it was more like 7 business days before I had it.

My Navy buddy at work ordered his RAA back in the summer, told it would take 2 mos, and ended up waiting 4 mos. Ugh, I sold my rifle and already want another! No way I can afford one now and I may not be able to ever again the way things look.

I've already considered building one, just gettin the lower right now. No one has anything in stock though, or if they do its more than I can pay right now. Not like when PSA used to run sales and stripped lowers were less than $100...
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

I bought a pof p415 lower before all this craziness began and I don't expect to be able to buy an upper for it without paying an outrageous price for at least 6 months. It will be interesting to talk with all the companies at SHOT show this year about the back logs they are currently facing.
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

The companies that manufacture firearms, especially the AR variants it seems, always have a hard time recovering when there is a rapid and unexpected uptick in sales. Most of the smaller companies have limited production capacity to begin with, couple that with keeping low levels of on hand stock to reduce overhead costs and you get massive back orders. It took what, probably 3 years for some of these companies to get back to reasonable wait times on a gun after Obama got elected? A friend of mine had an 18 month wait for a DPMS S.A.S.S. that he paid for in full when he ordered. Year waits weren't unheard of if you wanted something other than an off the shelf gun. Hopefully things start getting back to normal once the panic buying dies off but it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the smaller "boutique" type companies fold when they realize they have oversold themselves.
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

Tim4k5 said:
but it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the smaller "boutique" type companies fold when they realize they have oversold themselves.

I'm expecting much of the same thing.

Once the demand exceeds their capacity to recieve items to resell for long term, that's when they're going to go belly up because it takes money to make money, and if you don't have the parts to make money, the doors and lights don't stay on for long.

There are only a few "actual" Ar15 manufacturers. The rest, are assembly houses, and those are the ones that are not going to be able to keep up.

Now that cerberus has Remington, DPMS, and Shrubmaster up for sale, that is one conglomerent that has the real possibility of going away as we know it because the investors ran scared with their tail between their legs at the first hint of trouble, and to my knowlege, would only leave colt, olympic and possibly mega, aero precision, sun devil, quentin defense, and maybe superior arms to the best of my knowlege with only minimal capabilities to machine receivers, although I am not entirely certain how much most of them actually "make" in-house.

Barrels? Bolts? What about small parts for upper lower assemblies?

It actually takes a lot more than a cnc machine to mill a lower receiver to actually "make" a gun.

Olympic does actually make barrels, bolts, bolt assemblies inhouse, and the own/owned their own parts casting house in Ca. for small parts that they can fall back on if it came down to it.

These are valid long term market concerns.
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

I think it's generally accepted that many of the AR rifles we will see manufactured over then next two years will have some questionable quality control issues. There are some companies (Noveske, Daniel Defense, LMT, etc) who probably won't allow compromise, but there will be companies who increase production by 20%~30% with little regard to the finer nuances of fit and finish in order to fulfill existing orders.

Wouldn't be weird if AR rifles are "dated" like the Winchester Model 70 was designated as Pre-64 or after???
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

God, that is horrible news. He would have been one of the few who wouldn't allow any compromise.
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

agreed

On both points.
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

nitesite said:
There are some companies (Noveske, Daniel Defense, LMT, etc) who probably won't allow compromise

John Noveske died here yesterday in an MVA.......ejected. RIP John, treated the locals well with ammo deals, rifle help and just generally a good member of the community and patriot
 
Re: Delays being reported shipping AR15s to licensed gun dea

I'm looking at guns and watching the market but that's about it in that dept. Most of my resources are going to reloading supplies - all available locally at fair prices! I buy 22, 12 gauge and 7.62x39 steel (what i do not reload) and I know who has it priced right. I'm overdue to join a local gun club - $100 initiation + $150 annual. I've been shooting events as a guest way too long and I want the swipe card and full access. I'm shooting as regular and will continue to do so as long as I can buy more than I shoot - been my practice for 5 years. Reserves are pretty good. Brass too.
 
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